Ice Cream in Mexico

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Ice Cream industry in Mexico with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Ice Cream industry in Mexico, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Ice Cream in Mexico market research report includes:

• Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
• Detailed segmentation of international and local products
• Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
• Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
• Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

• What is the market size of Ice Cream in Mexico?
• What are the major brands in Mexico?
• How are manufacturers moving consumers from seasonal to year-round consumption, especially in emerging markets?
• How is domestic freezer penetration influencing consumption in emerging markets?
• With economic recovery far from guaranteed, are consumers cutting back on impulse and indulgence food items like ice cream?

Why buy this report?

• Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
• Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
• Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Packaged Food market research database.

Sample Analysis

TRENDS

• New competitors entered or increased their presence in the market in 2010 in both impulse and take-home ice cream, putting pressure on leaders Helados Holanda and Nestlé, which are constantly fighting with frozen products manufacturers for more in-store freezer space. Promotions and discounts were evident throughout the year to make products more attractive to consumers. Among the new brands and those increasing their offer are the following: private label, Häagen-Dazs, Manhattan Popsicles, Blue Bell Ice Cream, Prairie Farms, Neve Gelato, and Santa Clara

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• Nestlé México and Helados Holanda (Holanda) from Unilever have been dominant in ice cream in Mexico for decades in all areas, except frozen yoghurt and artisanal ice cream. In retail value terms, Nestlé held around 20% of sales in 2009, while Unilever Group held around 46% through two local companies, Helados Holanda and Unilever de México SA de CV (with its brand Ben & Jerry’s). In fourth place is Nutrisa SA which leads frozen yoghurt with sales through its stores and now packaged versions sold in supermarkets/hypermarkets and some discounters. However, it holds only 7% of total ice cream value sales.

PROSPECTS

• Ice cream is expected to improve its current performance over the forecast period, driven mainly by new openings of supermarkets/hypermarkets, discounters and convenience stores, as well as healthier innovations with strong media advertising. As these products are not sold in schools they are not expected to be negatively affected by the anti-obesity law, however, in the future it will be important to inform the consumer about the products’ benefits and dismiss the myth that ice cream only fattens.

Trends

• After going through a severe crisis during 2009, resulting from the economic downturn and the AH1N1 outbreak, consumers felt more confident in 2010. GDP is predicted to grow by 4.5% over the year, with exports driving growth. Moreover, the FIFA world cup presented foodservice establishments with the opportunity to increase their sales during 2010, although not to a significant extent, as most games were broadcast during the early hours of the day. Many leading restaurant chains, such as Vips, Sanborns and Chili’s, sought to benefit from the large number of Mexicans wanting to watch the games outside the home by creating special breakfast menus for under Mx$100. Other strategies included that of Starbucks, which increased the bandwidth of its Internet connections so that more people could stay tuned to the matches on-line while at the same time perform their other work activities in the outlets. Also, the Wings chain launched a promotion in which every goal scored by the Mexican team would translate into a 10% discount on each consumer’s bill.

Competitive Landscape

• Major companies such as Panificación Bimbo, Nestlé Professional, Herdez Food Service, Kraft Foods México, Unilever Foodsolutions and Sigma Foodservice are the most prominent in foodservice sales. All have agreements with the largest chained foodservice companies/operators, such as Food Service de México, to supply them with packaged food ranging from sauces, dressings and condiments to dairy products and baked goods.

Prospects

• New taxes were approved at the end of 2009 and implemented from the beginning of 2010 (for example, VAT rising from 15% in 2009 to 16% in 2010). This is expected to have a significant impact on prices and overall inflation. Whilst food purchased at retail outlets remains untaxed, processed food in a foodservice establishment is, therefore higher prices are expected to deter Mexicans from visiting restaurants, in spite of the more optimistic national economic scenario. Mexicans will still love to go out; however, having a meal outside the home is not a basic expense, and even those who do eat out may opt to limit their expenditure by not ordering a starter or a dessert.

Trends

• There is growing concern over the high obesity rate in Mexico, particularly amongst children, with increasing public attention being paid to this issue in recent years. In 2010, it was expected that the government would enact tougher measures to limit the offering of comida chatarra (“junk food”) in Mexico, starting in cooperativas escolares or stores located in schools. A list of unhealthy products, mostly manufactured by Grupo Bimbo and Sabritas, was published in early 2010, but was withdrawn later in the year, as companies exerted strong pressure on the government to extend the deadline for manufacturers to develop new technologies for the production of healthier foods. A large section of the population, as well as the health authorities, perceived this as an attempt by the companies to avoid large in losses sales from what could lead to a major transformation in the dietary habits of Mexicans.

Competitive Landscape

• Artisanal products remained the favourite choice among the consumers in 2009, with slightly over 39% of total retail value sales in Mexico. Grupo Bimbo is the largest single competitor, with 9% of value, with its strong position stemming from its leadership across many major categories, such as biscuits, sugar confectionery and pastries, which accounted for 31%, 9%, 5% and 14% of total retail value sales of impulse and indulgence products in 2010. However, Grupo Bimbo saw a decline of almost one percentage point in value share in 2009, due largely to increasing concern over obesity and growing number of Mexicans reducing their consumption of packaged pastries and sugar confectionery. Meanwhile, PepsiCo, through its Gamesa subsidiary, has been advancing in the category of savoury biscuits by launching products which are low in salt.

Prospects

• Concerns over higher obesity associated with the consumption of unhealthy foods are expected to become greater year after year, putting a considerable pressure on manufacturers of impulse and indulgence products. Even though big companies, such as Bimbo, Marinela, Sabritas, Ricolino and Barcel, have been successful in postponing the ban on unhealthy foods in school shops, giving them more time to undertake product reformulation, resizing, labelling and advertising measures, the delay is only temporary.

Trends

• Growth in most categories within nutrition/staples contributed to a recovery of the category as a whole during 2010. For example, the oils and fats category was affected by market instability and high prices during 2009, leading to a fall of 2% in retail volume sales, but it gained strength in 2010, with estimated growth of nearly 3% in volume terms. People have started to feel more confident about the economic situation and are therefore using more staple products to prepare their meals.

Competitive Landscape

• Artisanal products represented 33% of overall value sales in 2010. The daily diet of most Mexicans typically includes bolillos and tortillas as a complement to almost any type of food, and, in spite of having seen substantial price increases during 2007/2008, these goods are still perceived as the most affordable for many low income consumers. For example, a typical meal of a group of construction workers during lunch time would include a kilogramme of tortillas, a can of smashed beans and a can of hot chilli peppers in vinegar.

Prospects

• An overall better economic situation will allow for Mexican consumers to buy more staple products, such as packaged bread and cheese. In general terms, as concerns over high obesity rates impact public opinion, some categories will be negatively affected, such as oils and fats and spreads (where high sugar content prevails in most products), requiring the reorientation of product content towards healthier ingredients in the years ahead. Some other categories, such as drinking milk products and yoghurt, will face challenges in terms of shaping consumption patterns to achieve a greater frequency of purchase, with a reaffirmation of nutritional values in mature and highly competitive categories.

Trends

• A slow but consistent recovery in volume sales was seen in many categories across meal solutions in 2010. Those categories such as chilled processed food and frozen processed food, are benefiting particularly after a very poor 2009. That year saw the closure of many restaurants, as a consequence of the downturn and the AH1N1 epidemic, which prevented most Mexicans from going out for an extended period. Some categories that were not severely affected during the 2009 crisis, and even benefited from panic purchases stemming from the swine flu, such as canned/preserved fish/seafood, also saw healthy growth in 2010, of around 5% in volume terms in the case of canned/preserved fish/seafood, clearly indicating a return towards pre-crisis levels.

Competitive Landscape

• Grupo Herdez leads sales of meal solutions, with 11% of retail value in 2009. Conservas La Costeña is second, with over 8% of value. The leading positions of these companies are due to their traditional brand names that are recognised by almost every Mexican family, gaining them large and prominent spaces on store shelves. Grupo Herdez leads in both canned preserved food and sauces, dressings and condiments, whilst Conservas la Costeña is third and second in these categories, respectively.

Prospects

• With larger available incomes after the recovery from the economic downturn, consumers are expected to purchase more meal solutions. Sales of meal solutions are anticipated to see a 4% constant value CAGR over the forecast period, to reach Mx$106 billion at constant 2010 prices in 2015. In total volume (retail and foodservice) terms, a CAGR of over 3% is predicted, which is slightly higher than that seen over the review period. Canned processed meat and vegetables, chilled processed food, dessert mixes, and frozen processed food, are expected to see the most dynamic growth. Frozen processed poultry, frozen bakery and frozen desserts, as well as canned processed meat, remain niche areas, which still have room to grow in the future.

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

• Market Sizes
• Company Shares
• Brand Shares
• Distribution
• Analysis by Flavour
• Pricing
• Products by Ingredient
• Products by Ingredient

Market size details:

• Retail Volume
• Retail Volume % growth
• Retail Volume per capita
• Foodservice Volume
• Foodservice Volume % growth
• Foodservice Volume per capita
• Total Volume
• Total Volume % growth
• Total Volume per capita
• Retail Value retail selling price % growth
• Retail Value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
• Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value retail selling price real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price % growth
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Volume (Tonnes)
• Retail Volume (Tonnes) % growth
• Retail Volume (Tonnes) per capita
• Foodservice Volume (Tonnes)
• Foodservice Volume (Tonnes) % growth
• Foodservice Volume (Tonnes) per capita
• Total Volume (Tonnes)
• Total Volume (Tonnes) % growth
• Total Volume (Tonnes) per capita
• Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
• Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value retail selling price Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
• Retail Value manufacturer selling price Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

• National statistics offices governmental and official sources
• National and international trade press
• National and international trade associations
• Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
• Company financials and annual reports
• Broker reports
• Online databases
• The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

• Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
• Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
• Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
• Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

• Fill gaps in available published data per company
• Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
• Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
• Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.