Retail in Estonia saw total current value sales grow at a double-digit rate for a second consecutive year in 2022. However, growth was only marginally faster than in 2021 despite steep increases in unit prices for all kinds of goods amidst a surge in inflation fuelled by the global recovery from the pandemic and the wider geopolitical fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Illicit cigarettes and alcohol are the two biggest contributors to informal retail value sales in Estonia, reflecting the high excise duties levied on these product types. In mid-2019, the government reduced excise duty on alcoholic drinks in an effort to curb smuggling and attract more cross-border shoppers from Finland.
The outlook for retail in Estonia over the forecast period is generally favourable, with robust growth in total current value sales projected and the vast majority of channels set to post consistently positive results in this regard. The cost of living crisis will continue to subdue trade across the market in the short-to-medium term, but its negative effects will gradually recede as inflation comes down and the macroeconomic climate brightens.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Retailing industry in Estonia with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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Retail is the sale of new and used goods to consumers from a business for personal or household consumption from retail outlets, kiosks, market stalls, vending, direct selling and e-commerce. Retail is the aggregation of Retail Offline and Retail E-Commerce. Excludes specialist retailers of motor vehicles, motorcycles, vehicle parts. Also excludes fuel sales, foodservice sales, rental transactions, and wholesale sales (e.g. Cash and Carry). Sales value excluding or including VAT/Sales Tax. Retail also excludes the informal retail sector. Informal retailing is retail trade which is not declared to the tax authorities. Informal retailing encompasses (a) sales generated by unregistered and unlicensed retailers, i.e. retailers operating illegally, and (b) any proportion of sales generated by a registered and licensed retailer that is not declared to the tax authorities. Unregistered and unlicensed retailers operate predominantly (although not exclusively) as street hawkers or operate open market stalls, as these channels are harder for the authorities to monitor than permanent outlets. Activities in the illegal market, which is usually understood to refer to trade in illegal, counterfeit or stolen merchandise, are included within our definition of informal retailing. Activities in the “grey market”, which is usually understood to refer to trade in legal merchandise that is sold through unauthorized channels – for example cigarettes bought legally in another country, legally imported, but sold at lower prices than in authorized channels – will be included as informal retailing if no tax is paid on sale by the retailer. However if the retailer pays tax – for example on cigarettes bought legally in another country but sold at a lower price than standard – the sale is included within formal retail.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Retailing research and analysis database.
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