The war in Ukraine had a negative impact, with the resultant energy crisis leading to high inflation and dampening volume sales somewhat. As a result, while overall retail registered a healthy increase in current value sales in 2022, constant value sales fell.
High unemployment and chronically low personal incomes have had a negative effect on retailing by limiting its true growth potential and forcing parts of the population to resort to the informal economy. That being said, informal retailing significantly weakened over the review period due to increased regulation.
Retail will register moderate constant value growth over the forecast period. However, as long as the war in Ukraine continues to lead to economic uncertainty and high inflation, consumers will be price sensitive.
Growth will continue through e-commerce channels. However, e-commerce lags behind many of its neighbouring countries and further works needs to be done in terms of building an e-commerce infrastructure.
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Retail is the sale of new and used goods to consumers from a business for personal or household consumption from retail outlets, kiosks, market stalls, vending, direct selling and e-commerce. Retail is the aggregation of Retail Offline and Retail E-Commerce. Excludes specialist retailers of motor vehicles, motorcycles, vehicle parts. Also excludes fuel sales, foodservice sales, rental transactions, and wholesale sales (e.g. Cash and Carry). Sales value excluding or including VAT/Sales Tax. Retail also excludes the informal retail sector. Informal retailing is retail trade which is not declared to the tax authorities. Informal retailing encompasses (a) sales generated by unregistered and unlicensed retailers, i.e. retailers operating illegally, and (b) any proportion of sales generated by a registered and licensed retailer that is not declared to the tax authorities. Unregistered and unlicensed retailers operate predominantly (although not exclusively) as street hawkers or operate open market stalls, as these channels are harder for the authorities to monitor than permanent outlets. Activities in the illegal market, which is usually understood to refer to trade in illegal, counterfeit or stolen merchandise, are included within our definition of informal retailing. Activities in the “grey market”, which is usually understood to refer to trade in legal merchandise that is sold through unauthorized channels – for example cigarettes bought legally in another country, legally imported, but sold at lower prices than in authorized channels – will be included as informal retailing if no tax is paid on sale by the retailer. However if the retailer pays tax – for example on cigarettes bought legally in another country but sold at a lower price than standard – the sale is included within formal retail.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Retailing research and analysis database.
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