Retailing in Kenya

Retailing in Kenya

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COVID-19 impact on retailing

COVID-19 country impact

Modern grocery retailers increasingly prominent, as leading players expand their networks

Retailers partner with delivery services

What next for retailing?

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Informal retailing

Opening hours

Summary 1 Standard Opening Hours by Channel Type 2019

Physical retail landscape

Cash and carry

Seasonality

Back to school
Christmas

Payments and delivery

Emerging business models

MARKET DATA

Table 1 Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: Value 2015-2020
Table 2 Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 3 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 4 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 5 Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 6 Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 7 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 8 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 9 Non-Grocery Specialists: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 10 Non-Grocery Specialists: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 11 Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 12 Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 13 Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 14 Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 15 Retailing GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 16 Retailing GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 17 Store-based Retailing GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 18 Store-based Retailing GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 19 Store-based Retailing LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 20 Non-Store Retailing GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 21 Non-Store Retailing GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 22 Non-Grocery Specialists GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 23 Non-Grocery Specialists GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 24 Non-Grocery Specialists LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 25 Non-Grocery Specialists LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 26 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: Value 2020-2025
Table 27 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 28 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 29 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 30 Forecast Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 31 Forecast Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025
Table 32 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 33 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 34 Non-Grocery Specialists Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 35 Non-Grocery Specialists Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 36 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 37 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 38 Forecast Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 39 Forecast Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025

DISCLAIMER

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

SOURCES

Summary 2 Research Sources

Modern Grocery Retailers in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Modern grocery retailers hard hit by pandemic, as many consumers shop closer to home

Naivas Ltd eclipses the struggling Tusker Mattresses Ltd

Some players seek to make paying for shopping quicker, more convenient and more hygienic

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Hypermarkets and convenience stores will be at forefront of recovery in retail current value sales

Store networks will continue to expand

Boosted by the pandemic, e-commerce will continue to grow in prominence

CHANNEL DATA

Table 40 Modern Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 41 Modern Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 42 Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 43 Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 44 Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 45 Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 46 Modern Grocery Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 47 Modern Grocery Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 48 Modern Grocery Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 49 Modern Grocery Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 50 Modern Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 51 Modern Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 52 Forecast Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 53 Forecast Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 54 Forecast Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 55 Forecast Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025

Traditional Grocery Retailers in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Neighbourhood locations partially insulate some traditional grocery retailers from the pandemic’s economic shock

Facing increased competition from convenience stores, traditional grocery retailers seek greater efficiencies and to broaden their offer to consumers

Fear of contagion spurs growth in cashless payments

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Post-pandemic recovery will drive growth in retail current volume sales, particularly for traditional retailers in urban centres and close to transportation hubs

The competitive threat posed by modern grocery retailers will intensify

E-commerce provides a growth opportunity for traditional grocery retailers

CHANNEL DATA

Table 56 Traditional Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 57 Traditional Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 58 Traditional Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 59 Traditional Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025

Apparel and Footwear Specialist Retailers in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Hard-pressed consumers mend and make do

School closures reduce demand for children’s shoes

Retailers cut prices in an effort to lure back cautious consumers

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

School reopening and economic recovery will boost demand

E-commerce will help international brands to reach middle-income consumers

Government reprieve for second-hand clothing and footwear a blow for apparel and footwear specialist retailers

CHANNEL DATA

Table 60 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 61 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 62 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 63 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 64 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 65 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 66 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 67 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025

Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Heightened consumer interest in health and wellness keeps retail current value sales growing in a hostile economic environment

Demand for beauty products particularly hard hit by economic shock

Fewer prescriptions leads to reduced footfall

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Retail current value sales growth will accelerate, with demand for cosmetics likely to be particularly strong

As local consumers become more comfortable shopping online, health and beauty specialist retailers will pay more attention to e-commerce

Tighter regulation could slow growth in store numbers

CHANNEL DATA

Table 68 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 69 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 70 Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 71 Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 72 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 73 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 74 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 75 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 76 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 77 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 78 Forecast Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 79 Forecast Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Mixed Retailers in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Pandemic brings a temporary end to window shopping and bargain hunting

The opening of a fourth store boosts Massmart Holdings Ltd., masking a broad decline in demand due to the economic shock of the pandemic

Demand for big-ticket items particularly hard hit

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Post-pandemic economic recovery will boost demand, but Massmart Holdings Ltd’s expansion plans will be crucial

Hypermarkets to pose a growing competitive threat

Mixed retailers will have to up their e-commerce game

CHANNEL DATA

Table 80 Mixed Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 81 Mixed Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 82 Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 83 Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 84 Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 85 Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 86 Mixed Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 87 Mixed Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 88 Mixed Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 89 Mixed Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 90 Mixed Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 91 Mixed Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 92 Forecast Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 93 Forecast Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 94 Forecast Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 95 Forecast Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025

Direct Selling in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

COVID-19 hits direct sales particularly hard, due to restrictions on movement and lingering contagion fears

International players hit by supply disruptions

Demand for leader NeoLife International Ltd’s dietary supplements supported by increased consumer interest in preventative healthcare

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Post-pandemic economic recovery will drive rebound in retail current value sales

Social media will continue to grow in importance for direct sellers, blurring the line with e-commerce

Negative image of direct selling will continue to retard demand growth

CHANNEL DATA

Table 96 Direct Selling by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 97 Direct Selling by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 98 Direct Selling GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 99 Direct Selling GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 100 Direct Selling Forecasts by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 101 Direct Selling Forecasts by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

E-Commerce in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Locked-down consumers shop online in growing numbers

Reduced delivery fees buoy demand

Pick-up points alleviate last-mile issue

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Post-pandemic economic rebound, lower delivery fees and more affordable internet access will support strong growth in demand for e-commerce

Digital Service Tax unlikely to significantly impact e-commerce demand

New entrants will put pressure on leader Jumia Technologies AG

CHANNEL DATA

Table 102 E-Commerce by Channel and Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 103 E-Commerce by Channel and Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 104 E-Commerce GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 105 E-Commerce GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 106 Forecast E-Commerce by Channel and Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 107 Forecast E-Commerce by Channel and Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Mobile E-Commerce in Kenya

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Jumia Technologies AG partners with Airtel Money, but M-Pesa remains dominant in mobile money

For many Kenyans, the mobile internet is the internet

Cash on delivery remains the norm, but the government wants to change this

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Post-pandemic economic rebound will help to drive growth in mobile payments

Rising rate of smartphone penetration will continue to drive growth, while tax app will help to build trust in mobile payments

Cash will not be king forever

CHANNEL DATA

Table 108 Mobile E-Commerce: Value 2015-2020
Table 109 Mobile E-Commerce: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 110 Mobile E-Commerce Forecasts: Value 2020-2025
Table 111 Mobile E-Commerce Forecasts: % Value Growth 2020-2025

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