E-Vapour products suffered a drop in current value sales in 2021, in what is a small product area anyway, in terms of value sales. One of the problems with e-liquids in particular is that there is a significant amount of illicit trade, with NNA Smoke Free Estonia estimating that about 60% to 80% of e-liquids are sold through illicit trade.
Use of snus and snus-like nicotine products is increasing, in particular among young people, in spite of it being illegal. However, it is legal in nearby Sweden and Norway and in 2021, Estonia’s parliament announced that it will consider permitting sales of snus, in order to help reduce cigarette smoking.
In May 2020, Estonia amended its tobacco law to lift the ban on heated tobacco and in 2021 Philip Morris International launched its iQOS in Estonia. Heated tobacco had already been gaining popularity through cross-border trade with countries such as Latvia.
There are further amendments expected to e-vapour products over the forecast period, with the aim of encouraging cigarette smokers to switch to e-vaping, heated tobacco and snus. The possible loosening of regulations includes introducing regulations on nicotine content in white snus (tobacco free snus) and modifying existing regulations regarding flavoured products and reintroducing access to online sales.
Vaping is perceived as expensive and also less convenient in comparison with smoking cigarettes, as there is much more limited availability. With the economic outlook uncertain over the forecast period, and inflation expected to rise even further, due to global factors such as rising energy prices and continuing global supply shortages, consumer purchasing power is expected to fall.
Despite possible loosening of regulation over forecast period, e-vapour products are expected to register constant value decline. One reason behind the predicted decline is the steep entry price into the product area.
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Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco
Combined total of the four categories: Smokeless (including moist snuff and chewing tobacco), e-vapour products, heated tobacco and tobacco free oral nicotine.
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