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E-vapour products continued to record double-digit current value growth in 2019, driven by open vaping systems, and the new format of the non cig-a-like closed system which recorded triple-digit growth in its first full year of sales, helping to offset the ongoing declines recorded by cig-a-likes. Vaping in the Netherlands is continuing to gain in popularity amongst younger adults, who often start through curiosity with fewer consumers in this demographic taking up smoking cigarettes.
Following the roll-out of tobacco heating device Iqos and accompanying heated tobacco HEETS by Philip Morris in 2017, demand for these products has continued to increase with 2019 recording another year of triple-digit growth in both volume and current value terms. A strong growth trend is likely to continue into the forecast period, as heated tobacco benefits from less restrictive regulations and favourable excise taxation compared with combustible cigarettes.
The competitive landscape of e-vapour products in the Netherlands intensified as an increasing number of brands entered at the end of the review period due to the category’s further dynamic potential in the country. The emergence of the non cig-a-like closed system in 2018 through JUUL (JUUL Labs Netherlands BV) and Aspire caused much excitement amongst e-vapour consumers in the Netherlands but they were quickly joined by Myblu and Vype a year later, having been launched by producers of traditional tobacco products Imperial Tobacco Netherlands and British American Tobacco Netherlands BV, respectively; these players are increasingly looking at other avenues of profit due to declining demand for cigarettes.
In 2020, value sales of smokeless tobacco, e-vapour products and heated tobacco are now expected to grow by only 28% at constant 2019 prices in light of the impact of COVID-19. This compares to a 31% rise in sales forecast in our 2019 edition of tobacco.
While demand for the larger value category of open vaping systems is predicted to remain steady in 2020, the novel categories of non cig-a-like closed system and heated tobacco are predicted to record notably slower value growth at constant 2019 prices compared to 2019; however, their growth rates will remain impressive overall compared to all other areas of the tobacco market due to their low sales base. While heated tobacco sticks are now less expensive compared to the average unit price of cigarettes due to the ongoing tax rises for the latter, consumers still need to invest in an initial outlay for the tobacco heating device, and therefore some consumers during the pandemic may focus their spending on other priorities.
In line with declining smoking prevalence amongst adult consumer of cigarettes over the forecast period, demand for e-vapour products and heated tobacco is set to continue in the Netherlands, although compared to traditional tobacco their penetration will remain low in the country overall. However, while all main growth areas such as open vaping systems, non cig-a-like closed system and heated tobacco are predicted to continue to record positive sales over the forecast period, a slowdown in the growth rate in value terms at constant 2019 prices for the first two categories and in volume and value terms for the latter is likely from 2021 onwards, particularly as the novelty of these innovative products starts to wane.
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Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Smokeless Tobacco and Vapour Products industry in Netherlands with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.
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