Full-service restaurants saw solid current value growth during most of the review period, before turning to significant decline in 2020. The arrival of COVID-19 in the country in March led the government to enforce the closure of consumer foodservice outlets for a number of weeks in order to help halt the spread of the virus, with further closures also seen at the end of the year due to a resurgence of cases.
Due to restrictions to the eat-in operations of full-service restaurants, unsurprisingly, takeaway and home delivery saw strong increases in their value shares in 2020. This also led the share of online orders to almost double in 2020.
Van der Valk Groep, which is present within chained European full-service restaurants, maintained its lead in full-service restaurants in value terms in 2020. However, it lost notable share in this year.
Full-service restaurants is set to see a strong rebound in sales in current value terms in 2021, with both chained and independent full-service restaurants expected to see recovery. COVID-19 is likely to have less of an impact on the performance of the channel in 2021, with better control of the virus expected due to vaccination.
Another factor hampering the return to growth in 2021 is expected to be a continued decline in outlet numbers. Operators which were not doing very well pre-pandemic are likely to go out of business during the restrictions or just after restrictions are lifted, especially once government assistance stops during 2021.
Due mainly to its low base, North American full-service restaurants is expected to see the strongest growth in the forecast period, with this concept only entering the Netherlands in 2018 through TGI Fridays. The rising popularity of this channel will be due to the casual dining trend, which was driven by demand from younger consumers in the review period, and is set to emerge more strongly in the forecast period.
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