Carbonates in Guatemala

2021 DEVELOPMENTS

Off-trade volume sales bolstered by home seclusion and demand for larger packs

After having plummeted in 2020 due to COVID-19 lockdown measures that included the closure of foodservice outlets for several months, on-trade volume sales of carbonates in Guatemala have rebounded rapidly in 2021 following the easing of restrictions, with high double-digit growth projected for the entire year. However, this recovery has not come at the expense of retail demand, with off-trade volume sales growth expected to be slightly stronger than in 2020.

Regular carbonates remain much more popular than low calorie products

Regular carbonates are overwhelmingly preferred to low calorie versions in Guatemala. This is especially the case in the dominant category of cola carbonates, where in keeping with the trend observed throughout the review period, regular products are set to outperform low calorie varieties in off-trade volume growth terms in 2021.

Leading players increase digital engagement but e-commerce sales are marginal

Pepsicola Interamericana and Coca-Cola are the clear leaders in carbonates in Guatemala, together accounting for a substantially larger share of off-trade value sales than the rest of the field combined. With consumers spending more time at home than usual, these companies have stepped up investment in digital sales and marketing strategies since the beginning of the pandemic.

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Traditional consumption habits will underpin continued expansion of carbonates

Carbonates should continue to perform positively over the forecast period, with off- and on-trade volume sales projected to grow consistently from 2022 onwards. On-trade volume growth is likely to remain high in the short term as Guatemalans start spending more time outside the home with the anticipated easing of the pandemic, but will slow steadily as consumption patterns normalise.

Cola carbonates set to remain the most dynamic category

Cola carbonates will remain by far the largest of the main carbonates categories in Guatemala over the forecast period, and is also expected to be the most dynamic performer in off-trade volume growth terms. It will continue to benefit from the fact that in general, the public perception of these products in terms of their effects on health is not as negative as in many other countries.

Increased health-consciousness likely to boost demand for low calorie options

While the health and wellness trend is still underdeveloped in Guatemala, consumers are increasingly giving greater consideration to how diet and nutrition affect their general wellbeing and risk of developing different ailments. This tendency has recently become more pronounced due to the pandemic, which has made many people more conscious of the need to adopt healthier lifestyle habits and thereby strengthen their natural defences against illness.